Crypto markets are poised for potential catalysts in the year ahead, and now retail investors are asking about the upcoming Presidential election Bitcoin price impact. In this article, deep-dive the 2024 election cycle and discover how the Presidential election 2024 could trigger a Bitcoin supercycle.
Bill Clinton once famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
That phrase has persisted through time, and for good reason, no electorate wants to re-elect a politician during a recession.
With the US Presidential election coming up later this year, President Biden (and the Federal Reserve) will do everything in their policy kit to get the economy right. And some market analysts suggest that these measures and the Bitcoin Halving Cycle could lead to a Golden Bull Run—a kind of “supercycle” over the year to come.
19 days to the Bitcoin Halving.
Less than 90 days to the first Hong Kong $BTC ETF.
54 days to a potential $ETH ETF approval.
217 days to the US Presidential election.
No one is bullish enough.
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) April 1, 2024
Working in tandem with the Bitcoin Halving, these events could trigger a supercycle in the crypto. Throw every Bitcoin price prediction video out the window – here are three other factors that may trigger the supercycle:
1. Bitcoin Regulation: Could Depend On The Next President
The upcoming U.S. presidential election will bring uncertainty and potential regulatory shifts to cryptocurrency markets, and the stakes are high with about half of the young voters eyeing candidates’ cryptocurrency policies.
Depending on who lands in the Oval Office, we could see more crypto-friendly regulations—or not.
Anthony Georgiades, a general partner at Innovating Capital, suggests that while U.S. policy shifts can impact Bitcoin, its global nature and role as an economic stability hedge give it resilience.
Here are the leading candidates’ stances on crypto:
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- Biden: Has shown openness to exploring digital assets, even floating the idea of a CBDC and proposing a tax on Bitcoin mining.
- Trump: Once called Bitcoin a “scam,” but has since released his own NFT collection of Trump digital trading cards – and currently leads amongst crypto-oriented voters.
- RFK JR: Has vowed to back the US dollar with Bitcoin and is the most widely regarded pro-crypto candidate.
2. Presidential Election History on Side for a Bitcoin Bull Run
Another important reason market analysts have flipped bullish is that Bitcoin’s performance correlates relatively well with the S&P 500, although not 1:1.
That said, since the creation of the S&P Index, there have been 23 elections, 19 of which have triggered a positive performance (82% positive market reception).
Furthermore, when a Republican was elected president, the average market return was +15.3%, while for a Democrat Presidential elect the market returned a more average +7.6%.
Have a great summer pic.twitter.com/Nbti7s4JMQ
— THE CMS (@cmsholdings) March 27, 2024
Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have also had great Q2s, whether leading into an election or not – adding additional positive sentiment ahead of the Halving Event on April 20.
Bitcoin price has spent 64% of its April months in the green, while Ethereum had nearly 90% positive price action in the first month of Q2 – if crypto can take this momentum into Q3, which is often a bearish period for digital assets, it could go parabolic. And with spot Bitcoin ETF inflows sustaining pre-halving poise, say hello supercycle.
3. Bitcoin’s $200k Price Prediction and Energy Policies Bolster Supercycle
(BTCUSDT)
Kerel Verwaerde, CMO of Cryptology.com, points out that the energy policies favored by presidential hopefuls could also affect Bitcoin mining profitability, influencing BTC market dynamics – cheaper energy bills would result in higher profitability for miners; potentially reducing sell-pressure.
Conversely, Bitcoin might be on a trajectory that defies traditional market corrections, thanks to factors like ETF-fuelled supply-demand dynamics, inflation rates, and Wall Street’s Spot ETF investments.
“Bitcoin doesn’t have a President, nor need a President. That’s its greatest strength,” Founder of Bitcoin University Evander Smart told GoBankingRate.
Even if crypto goes badly, reasonable bullish investors like the Bitwise CEO expect BTC to reach $200k by 2025.
The Bottom Line: What’s Next for Bitcoin in 2024?
As Bitcoin strides through 2024, its path seems less about the Presidential election outcomes and more about broader economic factors such as interest rates, and intrinsic market dynamics around the Halving event.
While a Bitcoin price prediction can get you into hot water, many investors agree Bitcoin will outperform in 2024 – whether under Biden, Trump, or Robert Kennedy JR., therefore hopes for Bitcoin’s supercycle remain brimming with excitement for the year ahead.
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Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.
